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China Confidential - Premium Investment Insight

Update alerts

Housing market continues to recover in December

19 Dec

Home sales in the 42 cities monitored by China Confidential rose further in December, but inventories also increased.

Growth slows further in November

12 Dec

Economic activity slowed further in November, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, with signs that the sharp rise in new loans during the month had not yet fed through into the real economy.

Weak official exports distorted by fake invoicing clampdown

08 Dec

Our most recent proprietary survey of exporters suggested that fake invoicing and round-tripping of Chinese exports diminished in November, a likely cause of the sharp slowdown in official export growth. 

Latest report

18 December 2014

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The Big Call

Nine key themes for 2015

China Confidential has identified nine key themes that are likely to present both opportunities and risks in the coming year. 

Consumer China

Seeking growth amid a further slowdown

Although moderating incomes and economic uncertainty will drag on consumption growth in 2015, key subsectors look set to continue to outperform.

Consumer sector outlook for 2015

Our outlook for key consumer sectors and companies in 2015.

Financial China

2015 – a challenging year for the PBoC

Faced with a slowing economy and deteriorating asset quality at home and increasing uncertainty abroad, China’s central bank will have to carefully navigate a complex financial environment in 2015. 

Capital Intensive China

Investment to remain weak despite housing recovery

While there are green shoots of recovery in the housing market, the outlook for the industrial sector and fixed-asset investment is less positive

Forbidden City

Reform watch – one year on from the third plenum

A progress report on key areas of reform in 2014 and a look ahead to policies likely to be announced in 2015.

Report archive

04 December 2014

2014-12-04 Report

20 November 2014

CONSUMER – Snack foods; CAPITAL INTENSIVE – Property, FAI recovery; BEST OF CHINESE COMMENTATORS – Shanghai-HK Connect, China’s Asian influence

06 November 2014

CONSUMER – Budget hotels; FINANCIAL – PBoC’s policy paradigm; CAPITAL INTENSIVE – Housing market recovery; BEST OF CHINESE COMMENTATORS – Legal reform pledge, A-share loss surprise

23 October 2014

THE BIG CALL – Shopping malls; CONSUMER – Department stores; CAPITAL INTENSIVE – Retail property; BEST OF CHINESE COMMENTATORS – Pollution equipment, High-speed rail

09 October 2014

SPECIAL REPORT – Shadow finance; CAPITAL INTENSIVE – China’s pollution puzzle; BEST OF CHINESE COMMENTATORS – Domestic tourism slowdown, New mortgage rules

25 September 2014

THE BIG CALL – China's infrastructure challenges; CONSUMER – Infant milk formula; CAPITAL INTENSIVE – Understanding the property slowdown; BEST OF CHINESE COMMENTATORS – P2P popularity grows, Shanghai FTZ turns one


China’s GDP growth has fallen to its lowest level in five years. Rafael Halpin, Head of Quantitative Research at FT Confidential, and James Kynge, chairman of FT Confidential and emerging markets editor at the FT, discuss the outlook given the government’s lack of stimulus.

The Bottom Line


China Confidential Database


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