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Weak investment drags down 1Q14 GDP

16 Apr

Weak investment growth and tight credit conditions contributed to a slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to 7.4% YoY in 1Q14, down from 7.7% YoY in 4Q13, in line with our indications of an investment-led slowdown since the start of the year. Despite signs of short-term infrastructure support, we continue to expect tight credit conditions and property market weakness to weigh on growth rates in 2Q14, barring signs of genuine, large-scale stimulus, which we have yet to see.

FamilyMart heading to Beijing

11 Apr

DANWEI - Japanese convenience store chain FamilyMart will soon open its first outlets in Beijing. Also this week, the latest episode in the rocky development of a transport hub in Beijing. In the Mai-Mai Index, we look at use of the term “PM2.5” in Chinese news and social media in Q1 2014.

Weak start to April for Chinese housing market

09 Apr

Home sales fell in the first six days of April, pointing to continued weakness in the Chinese housing market.

Latest report

10 April 2014

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Consumer China

Online retail – Alibaba-Jingdong battle heats up

Recent investments and imminent US IPOs should strengthen the competition between China’s two leading e-commerce giants – and their advantages over smaller industry players that are already finding themselves increasingly marginalised.

Dangdang – lagging behind the leaders

The Beijing-headquartered online retailer reported its first quarterly profit for 11 quarters in 4Q13, but continues to lose popularity and market share amid fierce competition.

Vipshop – short-term advantages, long-term challenges

The Chinese online discount retailer should continue to outperform in the short term, but risks being squeezed by ambitious larger online retailers in the longer term.

Jingdong – Tencent alliance a potential game-changer

Jingdong’s alliance with internet giant Tencent should leave the online retailer in a much stronger position to challenge market leader Alibaba, but its continued reliance on direct sales and distribution will continue to weigh on profits.

Alibaba – facing up to the challenge

Alibaba’s proactive response to the growing challenge from JD.com should enable its Taobao Marketplace and Tmall sites to remain the two dominant e-commerce sites in China for the forseeable future.

Financial China

Chinese banks feel the squeeze

An analysis of listed banks’ 2013 results highlights the negative impact of the shadow finance squeeze on banks’ interest income, profits and non-performing loan ratios since the middle of last year.

Selected financial charts

A selection of key financial data over the past fortnight.

Capital Intensive China

Real estate slowdown hastens industry consolidation

Slower home sales have hit smaller developers much harder than their larger counterparts, resulting in a more consolidated real estate market.

Best of Chinese Commentators

Rumours of housing policy relaxation

Commentators discuss the likelihood and significance of reports that three Chinese cities are considering a relaxation of home purchasing restrictions.

Jing-Jin-Ji integration to ease capital congestion

Economists and analysts assess a new plan to relocate some administrative and industrial resources into the provinces surrounding Beijing in order to ease chronic pollution, congestion and overcrowding in the capital.

Report archive

Outbound tourism: China’s hottest export

China Confidential’s second annual survey of 1,257 outbound Chinese tourists and 37 travel agencies shows that Chinese tourists are travelling abroad in greater numbers and more frequently than ever before. Based on our survey results and official data, we estimate that total Chinese outbound spending in 2014 is likely to hit Rmb3.1tn ($513bn), up from Rmb2.8tn in 2013 and Rmb2.2tn in 2012.

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China is reining in capital investments as the authorities show their determination to slow credit growth. Rafael Halpin, Director of Capital Intensive at China Confidential, explains to John Authers the scale and the implications of China's slowdown.


The Bottom Line


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