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Surveys highlight Alibaba’s dominance, but point to risks

19 Sep

Our proprietary survey results underscore Alibaba’s dominance of China’s e-commerce sector, but also point to growing competition and potential risks to its outlook.

Chinese economy falters as real estate headwinds grow

15 Sep

Headline macro-economic data for August fell sharply, but a closer reading of the numbers suggests that worse may be to come, with the full impact of weak credit growth on the real estate sector yet to be felt. 

New bank deposit rules could squeeze shadow finance

15 Sep

Chinese banking authorities have issued new rules to curb the artificial inflation of deposits at the end of each month or quarter. The new regulations could significantly reduce banks’ exposure to shadow finance, likely squeezing their finances and lending capacity. However, we are unsure how effectively the new regulations will be enforced.

Latest report

11 September 2014

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Consumer China

Dairy – milking it

China’s growing appetite for dairy and further upstream and downstream consolidation should drive strong revenue and profit growth for large-scale dairy farm operators and leading dairy product manufacturers as the industry continues to recover from a series of safety scandals.

Mengniu – strategic overhaul starts to pay off

Chinese dairy firm Mengniu is beginning to reap the rewards of an acquisition-led strategic overhaul in 2013. 

China Modern Dairy – rapid growth on demand for higher quality

China’s largest dairy farm operator by herd size has benefitted from recent supply disruptions to grow rapidly on advantages in terms of technology and scale.

Yili – facing growing high-end competition

Leading dairy producer Yili faces growing competition from domestic and international rivals, particularly in the premium segment, as illustrated by falling popularity in our survey. However, improving product mix and rising margins offer reasons for optimism.

Huishan Dairy – aggressive regional player catching larger rivals

Huishan Dairy has grown rapidly, supported by heavy advertising and quality control advantages, and we expect growth to remain strong, though investment plans and competition may weigh on margins in the short term.

Capital Intensive China

Developer financing risks mount

1H14 financial results for China’s largest developers reveal faster debt accumulation, declining profit margins and rising inventories, suggesting that real estate sector risks are starting to rise.

Best of Chinese Commentators

Beijing eases sports industry restrictions

Analysts are discussing how much of an impact recently announced measures to reform the sports industry will have on a severely underdeveloped sector.

Return of the bull market?

Investors and economists are debating whether recent strong growth on mainland stock markets represents the return of a bull market, or simply a long-awaited readjustment.

China Confidential Database

The Bottom Line


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