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Capital Intensive

China’s slowdown worsens

GDP growth moderated in 3Q14, while our close analysis of the macroeconomic data for September suggests that the slowdown may have become more severe during the final month of the quarter.

21 October 2014

Home sales remain weak despite policy loosening

Initial data suggests that home sales over the National Day holiday period remained weak, despite the recent cut in mortgage rates. We maintain our view that without a concurrent loosening in wider credit conditions, real estate policy easing is unlikely to have a substantial impact on home sales.

16 October 2014

PBoC announces new mortgage rules

Analysts and industry participants assess the likely impact of the recent loosening of mortgage rules.

09 October 2014

China’s pollution puzzle

While there is little sign that pollution control measures are being eased, output at smaller steel mills, which previously ranked among China’s most heavily polluting enterprises, is rising again. 

09 October 2014

Signs point to a not-so-golden October

Despite several recent policy moves, we have yet to see signs of the broader credit easing needed to fuel faster Chinese economic growth.

08 October 2014

Special Report: shadow finance risks begin to ebb

Our latest in-depth analysis of China’s shadow finance sector suggests that while overall scale continues to increase, the systemic risks posed, particularly to the banking sector, may be beginning to decline.

08 October 2014

Central bank confirms mortgage rate cut

China’s central bank has announced looser mortgage policies for new and existing homeowners. A housing recovery is likely to hinge on whether broader credit conditions are also eased. 

30 September 2014

Weak ‘silver September’ for China housing market

Chinese home sales rose on a sequential basis, but the uptick was weaker than in previous years in a traditionally strong month for demand.

30 September 2014

Home sales rise in smaller cities

Housing transactions in third-tier cities rose sharply in the first three weeks of September, but declined in larger cities.

26 September 2014

Understanding China’s real estate slowdown

Our analysis suggests that China’s current housing slowdown is in line with previous credit-cycle-led downturns, and does not represent a more severe structural downturn.

25 September 2014

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