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Capital Intensive

Further signs of credit easing for home buyers

More Chinese banks are reducing mortgage rates for first-time buyers, but the impact on home sales has, so far, been muted.

02 September 2014

Seasonal recovery in housing market amid signs of credit easing

Home sales rose on a sequential basis and the recent fall in home prices moderated in August. While the improvement appears to be largely seasonal, there are signs that mortgage rates for first-time buyers are being reduced, which could drive a more sustained recovery.

01 September 2014

China’s housing shortage persists

Despite the fall in home sales this year, our analysis suggests that China’s housing market is undersupplied rather than oversupplied.

28 August 2014

Recovery proves short-lived

Sluggish July data and initial indications from our proprietary surveys in August appear to have borne out our prediction that the apparent uptick in Chinese economic growth seen in June would prove short-lived.

28 August 2014

Chinese freight activity remains subdued

Chinese freight activity showed further signs of sequential recovery during the first three weeks of August but remained subdued on an annual basis, according to China Confidential’s latest survey of 200 logistics firms nationwide. The outlook improved significantly, in anticipation of a seasonal surge in activity in September.

20 August 2014

Chinese home sales remain stagnant in August

Home sales data for the first two weeks of August showed no sign of recovery, but, equally, little evidence that the downward trend in home sales is becoming more severe.

19 August 2014

Lifting of home-purchase restrictions has limited impact

Despite the widespread lifting of home-purchase restrictions, China’s mortgage policy remains restrictive. Without a loosening of policy in this area, we see limited potential for a substantial near-term uptick in home sales.

07 August 2014

July home sales up MoM, down YoY

Full-month home sales in the 42 cities monitored by China Confidential rose on a MoM basis in July, but fell YoY

05 August 2014

Home sales fall in first-tier cities

Home sales in first-tier cities fell on both a MoM and YoY basis during the first 27 days of July, while a sharp rise in unsold housing in these areas points to mounting downward pressure on home prices. 

31 July 2014

False dawn for fixed-asset investment?

Closer analysis of the data suggests that the headline uptick in fixed-asset investment growth in June may prove short-lived.

31 July 2014

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