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2015 – a challenging year for the PBoC

Faced with a slowing economy and deteriorating asset quality at home and increasing uncertainty abroad, China’s central bank will have to carefully navigate a complex financial environment in 2015. 

18 December 2014

Nine key themes for 2015

China Confidential has identified nine key themes that are likely to present both opportunities and risks in the coming year. 

18 December 2014

Reform watch – one year on from the third plenum

A progress report on key areas of reform in 2014 and a look ahead to policies likely to be announced in 2015.

18 December 2014

Balancing reform with growth

We believe that Beijing will seek to balance reform with growth in 2015, with the aim of arresting the recent slide in economic activity, recognising that a stable economy is a prerequisite to successful reform implementation.

18 December 2014

Shadow finance remains tight despite lending surge

Recent policy adjustments and infrastructure approvals resulted in a sharp rise in bank lending in November, contributing to a sequential rebound in overall credit growth. However, further declines in key shadow finance asset classes meant that system-wide credit growth remained negative on a YoY basis. The sum of total social financing (TSF) – the widest official measure of financing in the economy – and our estimate of underground lending hit Rmb1,369.85bn in November, up 49% MoM but down 9% YoY.

15 December 2014

Structural reforms to squeeze bank profits

Recent policy moves suggest a concerted effort to challenge banks’ dominant status as the key distributor of liquidity within the Chinese economy and are likely to exert a significant short-term squeeze on profits.

04 December 2014

Selected financial charts

A selection of key financial data.

04 December 2014

Explaining the stock market rebound

Industry participants assess the factors driving the continued growth of domestic stock markets.

04 December 2014

Deposit insurance to launch in 2015

The announcement that a deposit insurance scheme will finally be introduced next year has prompted debate as to its likely impact on both banks and the wider financial system.

04 December 2014

Easing with reformist characteristics

There is now a clear sense that Beijing is adopting a more supportive policy stance, but it remains uncertain how this will be implemented within its reformist agenda.

04 December 2014

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