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Credit growth weak in September

Total social financing improved sequentially in September, driven by an improvement in formal lending growth, but sustained weakness in shadow finance continues to drag on credit growth.

16 October 2014

Signs point to a not-so-golden October

Despite several recent policy moves, we have yet to see signs of the broader credit easing needed to fuel faster Chinese economic growth.

08 October 2014

Special Report: shadow finance risks begin to ebb

Our latest in-depth analysis of China’s shadow finance sector suggests that while overall scale continues to increase, the systemic risks posed, particularly to the banking sector, may be beginning to decline.

08 October 2014

Special Report: illuminating shadow finance

In part two of our special report, our detailed analysis of the latest trends and developments within key shadow finance asset classes highlights shifting dynamics and changing risk profiles, as regulatory changes gradually ripple through the industry.

07 October 2014

P2P – continuing to grow amid uncertainty

With the popularity of P2P lending platforms continuing to grow despite a series of scandals, industry participants and investors assess the outlook for the sector.

25 September 2014

New bank deposit rules could squeeze shadow finance

Chinese banking authorities have issued new rules to curb the artificial inflation of deposits at the end of each month or quarter. The new regulations could significantly reduce banks’ exposure to shadow finance, likely squeezing their finances and lending capacity. However, we are unsure how effectively the new regulations will be enforced.

15 September 2014

Weak credit rebound in August

Credit growth rebounded in August from very low levels in July, with the sum of total social financing (TSF) – the widest official measure of financing in the economy – and our estimate of underground lending rising to Rmb1,199.7bn in August, up 150% MoM. However, credit growth remained down 34% YoY. 

12 September 2014

Weakness persists into August

The evidence suggests that much of the weakness seen in July continued throughout August. Though there are some signs of life in the real estate sector, we continue to believe that, without substantial government action, a significant uptick in growth remains unlikely.

11 September 2014

Developer financing risks mount

1H14 financial results for China’s largest developers reveal faster debt accumulation, declining profit margins and rising inventories, suggesting that real estate sector risks are starting to rise.

10 September 2014

Return of the bull market?

Investors and economists are debating whether recent strong growth on mainland stock markets represents the return of a bull market, or simply a long-awaited readjustment.

10 September 2014
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