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Assessing Alibaba’s latest financial innovations

Industry participants debate the significance of two new short-term credit facilities launched by Alibaba’s financial services affiliate.

09 April 2015

Paradigm shift – Chinese capital outflows in context

We think recent capital outflows and renminbi depreciation trends are in line with the government’s new monetary policy paradigm, and policymakers’ expectations.

26 March 2015

Assessing the renewed A-share market rally

Industry participants discuss the drivers and implications of a renewed rally on mainland stock markets in recent weeks.

26 March 2015

Nearing the bottom?

Economic activity appears to have weakened further in March, but the bigger picture of a gradual stabilisation in growth remains intact

26 March 2015

Key policymakers pledge stock market support

Two key Chinese policymakers have publicly stated their support for the rally on domestic stock markets, reinforcing our view that Beijing sees bullish A-share markets as a central plank of its new monetary policy framework.

13 March 2015

Formal credit growth boosted by RRR cut

The sum of total social financing (TSF) – the widest official measure of financing in the economy – and our estimate of underground lending totalled Rmb1,493bn in February, down 35% MoM but up 27% YoY. The rebound in formal lending suggests that the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut on February 4 boosted loan growth. Strong medium- and long-term lending also points to an increase in loans for infrastructure projects. Shadow finance growth, on the other hand, remained weak.

12 March 2015

Three emerging threats to growth

Beijing may struggle to manage the risks the economy is facing this year given the parameters within which it is currently operating.

12 March 2015

China ramps up local government bond issuance

A framework for dealing with existing local government debt appears to be emerging, although there is still little clarity as to how new local government spending will be funded this year. 

11 March 2015

Shadow finance slows in January

The sum of total social financing (TSF) – the widest official measure of financing in the economy – and our estimation of underground lending reached Rmb2,308bn ($369bn) in January, up 18% MoM but down 19% YoY. This was predominantly due to a slowdown in shadow financing, offsetting a rebound in formal loan growth, although comparisons are complicated by recent changes to loan and deposit classifications by China’s central bank. Informal lending activity moderated ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday.

16 February 2015

Consumer inflation hits five-year low

Economists debate what the consumer price index’s fall to a five-year low says about the Chinese economy, and what it means for policy going forward.

12 February 2015

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