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Domestic views on the A-share bull market

Mainland investors have been assessing the latest frenzied developments on Chinese stock markets.

23 April 2015

Assessing the latest RRR cut

Mainland economists assess the implications of the central bank’s latest RRR cut.

23 April 2015

Chinese banks in a period of transition

The weakening economy and a series of structural financial reforms have resulted in rising bad debt and slowing profit growth for Chinese banks, a trend likely to continue this year. However, growing support from regulators should enable a smoother long-term transformation of their role within the Chinese economy.

23 April 2015

A reassuring statement of intent

Beijing’s 100bp cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratios suggests a recognition that it needs to take a more proactive approach to relaxing credit conditions.

23 April 2015

Credit key to housing market recovery

While it is now clear that Beijing wishes to bring about a real estate recovery and there is strong underlying demand for housing, a sustained rebound in home sales will hinge on looser credit conditions, the absence of which undermined the previous policy-led rally at the end of 2014.

22 April 2015

Further RRR cut to provide additional support

China’s 100bp cut to its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks signals a further attempt to boost credit growth and stabilise the economy, in line with our expectations. With key shadow finance asset classes continuing to contract in March, there is room for further overall loosening measures to support this stabilisation in economic growth.

20 April 2015

Credit growth remains weak in March

The sum of total social financing (TSF) – the widest official measure of financing in the economy – and our estimation of underground lending declined to Rmb1,457bn in March, down 3% MoM and 38% YoY. Weak credit growth was due to a decline in key shadow finance asset classes, as well as muted formal loan growth. China’s central bank said on April 14 that it will use a variety of policy tools to maintain appropriate liquidity conditions and reasonable growth in credit. We think further loosening measures are possible in the near term.

14 April 2015

Assessing Alibaba’s latest financial innovations

Industry participants debate the significance of two new short-term credit facilities launched by Alibaba’s financial services affiliate.

09 April 2015

Paradigm shift – Chinese capital outflows in context

We think recent capital outflows and renminbi depreciation trends are in line with the government’s new monetary policy paradigm, and policymakers’ expectations.

26 March 2015

Assessing the renewed A-share market rally

Industry participants discuss the drivers and implications of a renewed rally on mainland stock markets in recent weeks.

26 March 2015

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