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Regulators clamp down on margin-trading violations

Commentators discuss the impact on A-share markets of the recent clampdown on margin lending at three of China's largest securities firms.

29 January 2015

Shadow financing lifts credit growth

Credit growth rebounded in December, with the sum of total social financing (TSF) – the widest official measure of financing in the economy – and our estimate of underground lending hitting Rmb1.95tn ($320bn), up 43% MoM and 25% YoY. This was due to a sharp increase in shadow financing at year end, offsetting a sequential decline in bank lending. The December credit increase was not sufficient to prevent full-year credit growth falling YoY to Rmb19.2tn, down from Rmb20.2tn in 2013.

15 January 2015

Setting the stage for trust defaults

Regulatory efforts over the past 18 months have reduced bank and local government exposure to trusts, while establishing an enhanced resolution framework. This should finally set the stage for full trust defaults to occur, perhaps starting in 3Q15.

15 January 2015

China’s infrastructure financing puzzle

Beijing has signalled its intention to maintain infrastructure investment at elevated levels this year, but achieving this amid a slowdown in traditional sources of funding will require a reconfiguration of the infrastructure financing landscape.

15 January 2015

Further support, further reform

With growth continuing to disappoint in December, Chinese policymakers have stepped up their support for the economy, while also accelerating financial reforms. 

15 January 2015

Selected financial charts

A selection of key financial data over the past fortnight.

15 January 2015

2015 – a challenging year for the PBoC

Faced with a slowing economy and deteriorating asset quality at home and increasing uncertainty abroad, China’s central bank will have to carefully navigate a complex financial environment in 2015. 

18 December 2014

Nine key themes for 2015

China Confidential has identified nine key themes that are likely to present both opportunities and risks in the coming year. 

18 December 2014

Reform watch – one year on from the third plenum

A progress report on key areas of reform in 2014 and a look ahead to policies likely to be announced in 2015.

18 December 2014

Balancing reform with growth

We believe that Beijing will seek to balance reform with growth in 2015, with the aim of arresting the recent slide in economic activity, recognising that a stable economy is a prerequisite to successful reform implementation.

18 December 2014
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