Macro View

Fear the catalyst

  • Published 07 Oct 2010

The possibility of a US-China trade war, international pressure on the renminbi to appreciate, rising Chinese inflation, signs of slowing Chinese export growth and a big meeting scheduled for mid-October to decide upon the next Five Year Plan. These are interesting times.

Trade war fearsIn our view, a trade war between the US and China is not inevitable, nor even likely. The bill passed by the House of US Representatives that would allow US companies to petition for duties on imports from China still requires approval from the US Senate, following which President Barack Obama would have to sign it in to law. Neither of these steps is certain, and powerful lobbies, such as the US retailers, remain against it. Even if the bill does take effect, the impact may be gradual, as each aggrieved company's representation is considered. Thus, while turbulence seems assured, a full-blown trade war does not.

Issue icon

Latest Issue

17 May 2012

Browse the archive

Subscribe now to access all of China Confidential

China Confidential Funds

China Confidential Funds, a new research service launched by FT China Confidential, is dedicated to illuminating the mainland fund industry. Our team of fund industry experts in Shanghai search out the interesting trends in fund performance, strategy, interactions with overseas funds, regulatory changes, distribution and management. We also use a proprietary system to track the emerging flows of Chinese money. Click here to find out more.

Find out more