The Big Call

Overcapacity concerns deepen

  • Published 06 Aug 2009

Quantity of growth vs the quality of growth...that is now the question.

In this issue, we engage the great debate over whether China's industrial capacity is ballooning out of control, risking a horrible implosion at some point in the future. We acknowledge at the outset that our best resource in this argument is humility. For one thing, accurate statistics are hard to come by. For another, accurate judgements on industrial overcapacity require accurate predictions of future demand and its sustainability. Thus, rather than attempting to read the runes, we are focusing on the current outlook for overcapacity, capacity expansion and oversupply in a few key industries.

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