The Big Call

China's urbanisation shifts to overdrive

  • Published 10 Dec 2009

The construction of new urban areas accelerated rapidly this year and is set to continue to expand at a similar speed in 2010, and the locomotive for growth is shifting appreciably toward lower tier cities.

China's urbanisation is the biggest and fastest the world has ever seen. The numbers are so huge that rounding errors are counted in the tens of millions. By official estimates, 45.7% of the total population of 1.3bn were thought to live in urban areas at the end of 2008, with the remainder as residents of rural settings. By 2030 – according to one plausible baseline scenario – the national population is expected to peak at 1.5bn and some 900m people will reside in cities, leaving some 600m still in the countryside.

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