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Weak investment drags down 1Q14 GDP

Weak investment growth and tight credit conditions contributed to a slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to 7.4% YoY in 1Q14, down from 7.7% YoY in 4Q13, in line with our indications of an investment-led slowdown since the start of the year. Despite signs of short-term infrastructure support, we continue to expect tight credit conditions and property market weakness to weigh on growth rates in 2Q14, barring signs of genuine, large-scale stimulus, which we have yet to see.

16 April 2014

Jing-Jin-Ji integration to ease capital congestion

Economists and analysts assess a new plan to relocate some administrative and industrial resources into the provinces surrounding Beijing in order to ease chronic pollution, congestion and overcrowding in the capital.

10 April 2014

Desperately seeking stimulus

With few signs of genuine stimulus forthcoming, we continue to believe that a recovery in growth may still be some way off.

10 April 2014

New orders boost labour demand in March

Chinese employers reported strengthening demand for labour on both a MoM and a YoY basis in March, according to our latest survey of 285 companies across the manufacturing, construction and service sectors in 15 cities nationwide. Demand was underpinned by a rise in business orders, with the labour shortage seen following the Chinese New Year holiday easing.

03 April 2014

Few signs of stimulus in State Council announcement

China’s State Council has called for an acceleration in rail and home construction this year, but has not raised investment and construction targets in either sector. Against a backdrop of continuing financing pressures for infrastructure projects and a slowdown in the private housing market, we do not expect these measures to provide a significant boost to economic growth.

03 April 2014

China’s exports recover in March

China’s export volumes strengthened both on a MoM and YoY basis in March, according to China Confidential’s latest survey of 203 export manufacturers, trading companies and shipping agents. A sequential increase in new orders and easing currency concerns also contributed to a more positive outlook.

02 April 2014

Surveys paint a mixed economic picture in March

China Confidential’s proprietary indicators painted a mixed economic picture in March. Export activity and labour demand strengthened on both a MoM and a YoY basis, while freight activity returned broadly to pre-Chinese New Year holiday levels but nevertheless showed underlying YoY weakness. 

28 March 2014

Survey confirms infrastructure slowdown

Our survey of 70 infrastructure projects in seven provinces provides on-the-ground evidence of the slower investment trend suggested by official numbers since the start of the year, but also points to likely short-term support for existing projects.

27 March 2014

Anti-pollution campaign hits northern industrial output

Industrial output in regions affected by pollution-control measures has fallen sharply, but excess capacity elsewhere means that companies in other provinces have largely picked up the slack.

27 March 2014

China to extend VAT reform pilot

Commentators discuss the implications of a proposed expansion of business VAT reform to a number of new sectors, including telecoms and real estate.

27 March 2014

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