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Macro

A short-term recovery

Strengthening credit growth and economic activity in June may appear to suggest that China’s economy has bottomed out, but a closer analysis raises doubts about the sustainability of the recovery.

16 July 2014

Rise of the robots

With China now the world’s largest robot market, our latest survey of robotmakers and users in seven provinces highlights the reasons behind the recent surge in robot purchases, the future demand outlook and the likely impact on labour trends and the overall economy.

16 July 2014

China’s monetary policy shift

Recent targeted moves to boost base money supply suggest that China’s central bank is set on managing liquidity through direct measures aimed at specific sectors of the economy, rather than previously used market-wide injection tools such as rate cuts or RRR hikes

03 July 2014

Lessons from the liquidity squeeze

A year on from the severe liquidity squeeze in June 2013, bankers and market participants have been debating the lessons learned and examining why there wasn't a repeat performance this year.

03 July 2014

A fragile recovery

Despite stronger PMI readings and some positive signs in our proprietary macro surveys in June, tight credit and ongoing private sector and real estate weakness continue to mitigate against an economic recovery.

03 July 2014

Fixed-asset investment – an uneven recovery

The recovery in fixed-asset investment growth seen in recent months has been uneven and limited in nature and may not be sustained.

03 July 2014

Chinese export growth eases in June

Chinese export activity stabilised on a MoM basis but moderated slightly on a YoY basis in June following several months of strong growth, according to China Confidential’s latest survey of 202 export manufacturers, trading companies and shipping agents across the country. New order growth also slowed slightly, but remained strong.

01 July 2014

Labour demand moderated in June

Labour demand moderated on both a MoM and a YoY basis in June, according to our latest survey of 285 construction, manufacturing and service-sector companies. This was largely due to a significant easing in manufacturing-sector demand, which offset a recovery in construction-sector labour demand and overtime. Blue-collar wage growth remained muted for a second successive month.

30 June 2014

Manufacturing weakness, consumer strength

China Confidential’s proprietary indicators suggest a weakening of manufacturing activity in June, with exports also moderating following several months of strong growth. 

27 June 2014

China’s urbanisation challenge

Our research in 16 towns nationwide suggests that China’s drive to develop its smaller towns and cities may be more difficult than it foresees.

19 June 2014
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