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2015 – a challenging year for the PBoC

Faced with a slowing economy and deteriorating asset quality at home and increasing uncertainty abroad, China’s central bank will have to carefully navigate a complex financial environment in 2015. 

18 December 2014

Investment to remain weak despite housing recovery

While there are green shoots of recovery in the housing market, the outlook for the industrial sector and fixed-asset investment is less positive

18 December 2014

Nine key themes for 2015

China Confidential has identified nine key themes that are likely to present both opportunities and risks in the coming year. 

18 December 2014

Reform watch – one year on from the third plenum

A progress report on key areas of reform in 2014 and a look ahead to policies likely to be announced in 2015.

18 December 2014

Seeking growth amid a further slowdown

Although moderating incomes and economic uncertainty will drag on consumption growth in 2015, key subsectors look set to continue to outperform.

18 December 2014

Balancing reform with growth

We believe that Beijing will seek to balance reform with growth in 2015, with the aim of arresting the recent slide in economic activity, recognising that a stable economy is a prerequisite to successful reform implementation.

18 December 2014

Growth slows further in November

Economic activity slowed further in November, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, with signs that the sharp rise in new loans during the month had not yet fed through into the real economy.

12 December 2014

Weak official exports distorted by fake invoicing clampdown

Our most recent proprietary survey of exporters suggested that fake invoicing and round-tripping of Chinese exports diminished in November, a likely cause of the sharp slowdown in official export growth. 

08 December 2014

Labour demand remains strong but wage growth eases

Labour demand growth moderated MoM but remained strong on an annual basis in November, according to our latest survey of 285 construction, manufacturing and service-sector firms. Blue-collar wage growth eased, despite the fact that respondents were able to fill a smaller proportion of advertised vacancies than in October.

05 December 2014

Exports strengthen as false invoicing declines

Chinese exporters reported stronger growth on both a MoM and YoY basis in November, according to China Confidential’s latest survey of 200 export manufacturers, trading companies and shipping agents. Furthermore, false invoicing and circular trade activity diminished last month, suggesting that much of this export growth was genuine.

04 December 2014

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