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Macro

China announces end to temporary residence permits

The move means that rural migrant workers will be able to access urban public services without having to relinquish rural land rights, removing a significant barrier to urban migration.

17 February 2015

Consumer inflation hits five-year low

Economists debate what the consumer price index’s fall to a five-year low says about the Chinese economy, and what it means for policy going forward.

12 February 2015

Assessing the weak January trade data

Economists and analysts have been debating the reasons behind the weak January trade data and the likely policy implications.

12 February 2015

Chengtou bond slowdown reflects reform progress

A marked slowdown in bond issuance by local government financing vehicles since 3Q14 highlights a concerted attempt by policymakers to push through more fundamental financing reforms. However, progress is likely to be gradual.

12 February 2015

No need to panic

Recent moves suggest that policymakers now have the space and confidence to launch broader-based easing measures if deemed necessary. But stabilisation, not stimulus, remains their guiding principle.

12 February 2015

RRR cut signals further support

The 50bp cut to the reserve requirement ratio is a further sign of Beijing’s shift to a more supportive policy stance. We believe this is aimed at halting the recent downward slide in economic activity, but we do not see any evidence yet of an intention to stimulate a sharp rebound in growth.

04 February 2015

Labour demand eases ahead of the holiday

Labour demand growth eased in January, according to our latest survey of 285 construction, manufacturing and service-sector firms, as employers scaled back hiring ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Overtime growth remained strong, as companies enlisted existing employees to undertake work rather than hiring new workers. Blue-collar wage growth slowed slightly.

02 February 2015

Exports remain robust despite seasonal slowdown

Chinese exports remained strong in January despite a slight seasonal slowdown, according to China Confidential’s latest survey of 200 export manufacturers, trading companies and shipping agents. However, the outlook weakened significantly ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday in mid-February, when many export manufacturers close for several weeks.

30 January 2015

Chinese economic activity remained subdued in January

The results of our latest suite of proprietary surveys suggested continued weak growth momentum in January, with freight activity remaining sluggish and real estate sales slowing further. Consumer spending growth stabilised at relatively low levels, while labour demand growth also eased ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Export growth moderated slightly on a MoM and YoY basis but remained robust.

29 January 2015

Special Report: China’s two-speed luxury market

Our in-depth surveys of luxury fashion buyers and store managers nationwide suggest an increasing divergence in performance between struggling high-end luxury brands and buoyant affordable-luxury brands.

29 January 2015
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