The Big Call

No rebound…yet

  • Published 05 Mar 2009

This space is set aside each fortnight for a Big Call - sometimes bold, sometimes less so – that we make on a key aspect of the economy or related issue. As this is our launch edition and we are setting out our stall, we felt that a series of calls was, well, called for – so that you get a better sense of where we are coming from.

Just as Premier Wen Jiabao indicated to the FT in February, Beijing is preparing a big boost to its state stimulus measures. As this publication went to press on the eve of the National People’s Congress, several economists were predicting that the new package could involve as much as double the spending of the existing Rmb 4,000bn ($584.6bn, €462.5bn, £415.3bn) fiscal stimulus package. We think that whatever is announced, the devil will be in the detail. In any case, the boost will take several weeks if not months to feed through into the real economy. In the meantime, it is too early to call the bottom of China’s growth cycle. Our first call is:

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China Confidential Funds, a new research service launched by FT China Confidential, is dedicated to illuminating the mainland fund industry. Our team of fund industry experts in Shanghai search out the interesting trends in fund performance, strategy, interactions with overseas funds, regulatory changes, distribution and management. We also use a proprietary system to track the emerging flows of Chinese money. Click here to find out more.

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