In Depth

The Great GDP Debate: Believers vs Naysayers

  • Published 30 Apr 2009

A dichotomy is emerging between those that believe Chinese economic growth will rebound quickly and those that think a combination of factors will drag growth down. China Confidential gives its take.

Opinions over the prospects of the Chinese economy this year are polarising into two camps – the believers in the official orthodoxy that growth will rebound strongly in Q2 and 2H to achieve Beijing’s target of "about 8%", and the naysayers who think a confluence of factors will drag activity down. Prominent in the optimistic camp is Goldman Sachs, which revised upward last week its estimates of gross domestic product growth in 2009 from 6% to 8.3% and in 2010 from 9% to 10.9%. Key naysayers include Zhu Baoliang, an economist at the State Information Centre, who says that excess capacity in manufacturing is so large that it will take the economy several years to digest it.

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