Macro View

Summer cooling

  • Published 22 Apr 2010

The announcement of an 11.9% GDP growth rate in Q1 this year prompted a deluge of commentary to the effect that China has overheated and needs now to tighten monetary policy immediately. Our take – as shown in several Update Alerts last week – is quite different.

The figures announced concern the past, not the future. Several signs are now converging to suggest that Q2 marks a phase of cooling for the economy, even without a widely predicted hike in interest rates.

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