The Best of Chinese Commentators

What lies ahead for China's economic growth?

  • Published 01 Oct 2009

As long as the return to inflation is not eruptive in nature, it will not force policymakers to tighten credit in a way that will derail current growth.

Sun Mingchun, China chief economist of Nomura Securities, is confident about China's growth both this year, and next. He recently raised his GDP forecast from 8.1% to 8.5% for 2009, and from 10% to 10.5% for 2010. Companies are confident about recruiting again, which bodes well for both consumption and revenue growth. Investment in property development is expected to start increasing gradually along with a recovery in the property market – this will add a fillip to China's GDP growth next year. As far as credit tightening is concerned, unless inflation returns with a vengeance, policymakers are unlikely to put the brakes on, he said.

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