Rmb appreciation. Will 2010 be the year?

• Published 04 Mar 2010

Arguments exist both for and against the move, but overall, the case for an early appreciation of the renminbi is less than compelling.

A recent flurry of economist predictions that Beijing will allow the renminbi to appreciate against the US dollar by a considerable margin this year has focused attention on this complex issue. Our view is that Beijing has yet to make up its mind because too many factors are unknowable at this stage. Nevertheless, we delve into some of the key considerations in play.

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