The Best of Chinese Commentators

Is renminbi appreciation really on the cards?

  • Published 26 Nov 2009

Recent comments by China's central bank that the renminbi has some room for adjustment have sparked another round of debate internationally about the need for appreciation. But what do China's economists think?

Tan Yaling, head of the China Forex Investment Research Academy, thought that the media misinterpreted the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) comments over renminbi appreciation in the near term. It was most likely a warning to overseas speculators who have been pouring hot money into China betting that the renminbi will rise. It is unlikely the government would allow the renminbi to appreciate when exports are only just picking up, she said. Liu Dongliang, an analyst at China Merchants Bank, and Shi Lei, an analyst at the Bank of China, agreed and added that domestic manufacturers are certainly not expecting the renminbi to appreciate given that it is still not clear whether the export recovery is sustainable.

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