Macro View

Succession politics

  • Published 04 Mar 2010

The question of which leaders are set to succeed President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen in 2012 will form a key hidden context to much of the debate at this month's National People's Congress.

Behind the choreographed scenes and between the carefully composed lines at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC) this month, the delicate issue of succession politics is set to move through another phase in its evolution. Though it is unlikely to merit a public reference, the question of which leaders are set to succeed Hu Jintao, the Communist party boss, and Wen Jiabao, the premier, at the 18th Party Congress in late 2012 will form a key hidden context to much of the debate. Hu's protégé, Li Keqiang, a vice-premier, is currently thought likely to take over from Wen as premier while the protégé of former president Jiang Zemin, Xi Jinping, the current vice-president, is slated to take over from Hu. But nothing is ultimately certain. The questions of whether a smooth transition of power can be achieved, or whether jockeying between rival factions could come to derail existing policies, are valid.

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