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Reported mortgage easing could stimulate home sales

Domestic media reports suggest that China’s four biggest lenders will start offering discounted mortgages to first-time buyers, as well as to customers seeking to upgrade their home. By removing prohibitively restrictive home financing conditions for upgraders, authorities could potentially re-engage a substantial unmet pool of demand for bigger and better homes.

23 September 2014

2Q14 Consumer Brands Survey

Each quarter, China Confidential surveys around 2,000 Chinese urban, middle-class consumers in more than 100 cities nationwide on their brand preference and spending behaviour across a range of products.

22 September 2014

Surveys highlight Alibaba’s dominance, but point to risks

Our proprietary survey results underscore Alibaba’s dominance of China’s e-commerce sector, but also point to growing competition and potential risks to its outlook.

19 September 2014

Chinese economy falters as real estate headwinds grow

Headline macro-economic data for August fell sharply, but a closer reading of the numbers suggests that worse may be to come, with the full impact of weak credit growth on the real estate sector yet to be felt. 

15 September 2014

New bank deposit rules could squeeze shadow finance

Chinese banking authorities have issued new rules to curb the artificial inflation of deposits at the end of each month or quarter. The new regulations could significantly reduce banks’ exposure to shadow finance, likely squeezing their finances and lending capacity. However, we are unsure how effectively the new regulations will be enforced.

15 September 2014

Weak credit rebound in August

Credit growth rebounded in August from very low levels in July, with the sum of total social financing (TSF) – the widest official measure of financing in the economy – and our estimate of underground lending rising to Rmb1,199.7bn in August, up 150% MoM. However, credit growth remained down 34% YoY. 

12 September 2014

Weak seasonal recovery in Chinese home sales

Although home sales in the 42 cities monitored by China Confidential saw a seasonal uptick in the first week of September, YoY growth remained negative.

11 September 2014

Huishan Dairy – aggressive regional player catching larger rivals

Huishan Dairy has grown rapidly, supported by heavy advertising and quality control advantages, and we expect growth to remain strong, though investment plans and competition may weigh on margins in the short term.

11 September 2014

Yili – facing growing high-end competition

Leading dairy producer Yili faces growing competition from domestic and international rivals, particularly in the premium segment, as illustrated by falling popularity in our survey. However, improving product mix and rising margins offer reasons for optimism.

11 September 2014

China Modern Dairy – rapid growth on demand for higher quality

China’s largest dairy farm operator by herd size has benefitted from recent supply disruptions to grow rapidly on advantages in terms of technology and scale.

11 September 2014
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