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Housing market continues to recover in December

Home sales in the 42 cities monitored by China Confidential rose further in December, but inventories also increased.

19 December 2014

2015 – a challenging year for the PBoC

Faced with a slowing economy and deteriorating asset quality at home and increasing uncertainty abroad, China’s central bank will have to carefully navigate a complex financial environment in 2015. 

18 December 2014

Investment to remain weak despite housing recovery

While there are green shoots of recovery in the housing market, the outlook for the industrial sector and fixed-asset investment is less positive

18 December 2014

Nine key themes for 2015

China Confidential has identified nine key themes that are likely to present both opportunities and risks in the coming year. 

18 December 2014

Reform watch – one year on from the third plenum

A progress report on key areas of reform in 2014 and a look ahead to policies likely to be announced in 2015.

18 December 2014

Consumer sector outlook for 2015

Our outlook for key consumer sectors and companies in 2015.

18 December 2014

Seeking growth amid a further slowdown

Although moderating incomes and economic uncertainty will drag on consumption growth in 2015, key subsectors look set to continue to outperform.

18 December 2014

Balancing reform with growth

We believe that Beijing will seek to balance reform with growth in 2015, with the aim of arresting the recent slide in economic activity, recognising that a stable economy is a prerequisite to successful reform implementation.

18 December 2014

Freight activity slows in early December

Chinese freight activity remained sluggish on a MoM basis and slowed on a YoY basis during the first two weeks of December, according to China Confidential’s latest survey of 200 rail, road, air and water logistics companies nationwide. Most respondents expect little change during the remainder of the month and in early January.

15 December 2014

Shadow finance remains tight despite lending surge

Recent policy adjustments and infrastructure approvals resulted in a sharp rise in bank lending in November, contributing to a sequential rebound in overall credit growth. However, further declines in key shadow finance asset classes meant that system-wide credit growth remained negative on a YoY basis. The sum of total social financing (TSF) – the widest official measure of financing in the economy – and our estimate of underground lending hit Rmb1,369.85bn in November, up 49% MoM but down 9% YoY.

15 December 2014
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