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Update Alerts

China’s slowdown worsens

GDP growth moderated in 3Q14, while our close analysis of the macroeconomic data for September suggests that the slowdown may have become more severe during the final month of the quarter.

21 October 2014

Home sales remain weak despite policy loosening

Initial data suggests that home sales over the National Day holiday period remained weak, despite the recent cut in mortgage rates. We maintain our view that without a concurrent loosening in wider credit conditions, real estate policy easing is unlikely to have a substantial impact on home sales.

16 October 2014

Chinese exporters report increase in over-invoicing

China Confidential’s latest proprietary monthly surveys of 200 export manufacturers, trading companies and shipping agents suggest that over-invoicing of exports is becoming more common again. 

02 October 2014

Central bank confirms mortgage rate cut

China’s central bank has announced looser mortgage policies for new and existing homeowners. A housing recovery is likely to hinge on whether broader credit conditions are also eased. 

30 September 2014

Home sales rise in smaller cities

Housing transactions in third-tier cities rose sharply in the first three weeks of September, but declined in larger cities.

26 September 2014

State Council announces measures to boost fixed-asset investment

China’s State Council has announced polices to incentivise companies to invest in new equipment, in a move that could shore up flagging fixed-asset investment growth.

25 September 2014

Reported mortgage easing could stimulate home sales

Domestic media reports suggest that China’s four biggest lenders will start offering discounted mortgages to first-time buyers, as well as to customers seeking to upgrade their home. By removing prohibitively restrictive home financing conditions for upgraders, authorities could potentially re-engage a substantial unmet pool of demand for bigger and better homes.

23 September 2014

Surveys highlight Alibaba’s dominance, but point to risks

Our proprietary survey results underscore Alibaba’s dominance of China’s e-commerce sector, but also point to growing competition and potential risks to its outlook.

19 September 2014

Chinese economy falters as real estate headwinds grow

Headline macro-economic data for August fell sharply, but a closer reading of the numbers suggests that worse may be to come, with the full impact of weak credit growth on the real estate sector yet to be felt. 

15 September 2014

New bank deposit rules could squeeze shadow finance

Chinese banking authorities have issued new rules to curb the artificial inflation of deposits at the end of each month or quarter. The new regulations could significantly reduce banks’ exposure to shadow finance, likely squeezing their finances and lending capacity. However, we are unsure how effectively the new regulations will be enforced.

15 September 2014

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