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14 January 2010

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The Big Call

Food inflation to surge

No economic trend in China is more important than inflation, as we have been saying since July last year (CC July 9th Big Call). If Beijing fails to control it, it may have to slam on the monetary brakes later this year, potentially precipitating a 'hard landing' for the economy.

Consumer China

Food inflation: Winners and Losers

Inflation in the price of many farm products is no small deal in a country with 721m rural citizens.

Three snapshots

While margins at processed meat processors Delisi and Shanghai Dajiang are struggling under rising raw meat and pig prices, Zhangzidao Fishery is benefitting from demand for its upscale seafood.

Wuhan Zhongbai (000759:SZ)

Although Zhongbai continues to struggle outside of its home Hubei, inflation should support sound revenue growth in 2010.

Yurun (1068:HKG)

The meat processor's mix of both low and high-end products gives the company more leverage to defend against pork inflation.

Wumart (8277:HKG)

The supermarket chain expects mild food inflation to bolster revenues.

Sanquan Foods (002216:SZ)

The frozen-food manufacturer may see profits eroded by rising raw material costs.

Tingyi (0322:HKG)

Tingyi's recent success with beverages may help offset margin declines seen currently in its noodle business.

Zhongpin (HOGS:Nasdaq)

The fresh pork specialist is set to benefit from pig price inflation.

The Best of Chinese Commentators

The future of futures

What will the launch of newly approved stock index futures, margin trading and short selling products mean for the domestic stock market?

If downpayment requirements on property go up, will prices come down?

Beijing's regulatory changes, aimed at cooling the property market, are creating a stir with analysts debating whether enough has been done to prevent land hoarding.

Guest Column

China cements status as world growth leader

Charlie Awdry, manager of Gartmore China Opportunities Fund, talks on China's rising influence in Asia and around the world.

Funds Data

Investors ponder over direction of monetary policy

Investors looked to be hesitating on China entering into the New Year, much like the picture this time a year ago.

Forbidden City

US-China rift over Google reflects fractious ties

Google's defiance of Beijing has the potential to put ties with the US into the deep freeze.

In Depth

China's farm imports outpace exports

Trade deficit in farm goods to continue to grow in China over the next five years as imports outpace exports.

Postcard From No 528

Farmers do better than urban 'mortgage slaves'

This year, Beijing will continue to push preferential policies for farmers while trying to stabilise property prices in major cities.

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