Macro

China’s PMI shows resilience in January

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.5% in January, from 50.3% in December, confirming our research showing that the domestic manufacturing sector is more resilient than expected. The resilient performance provides evidence that a looser liquidity policy adopted since last November, complemented by a cut in bank reserve requirement ratios (RRR), is helping to boost demand and keep the “soft landing” scenario on track. This being the case, we think that Beijing no longer needs to cut the RRR each month in 1H 2012, but may decide to cut the ratio around three times over the first half.

  • 01 February 2012

China’s inflation suggests more liquidity easing

Inflation figures released today extend Beijing's license to ease liquidity policy further in coming weeks (CC Jan 12 Macro View) and further relieves manufacturers from the big margin squeeze that characterised 2011 (CC Jan 12 Consumer China).

  • 12 January 2012

Stimulus required

Though a repeat of the muscular Rmb4.0tn stimulus package seen in 2009-2010 is now hardly possible, the need for Beijing to inject extra vigour into consumer spending, exports and even fixed asset investments is slowly becoming clearer.

  • 12 January 2012

Utility prices climb

Artificial suppression of key utility prices – including water, electricity and gas – has been part of the secret of China’s industrial success. But now things are changing.

  • 12 January 2012

China trade figures underline need for consumer stimulus

Trade figures announced today underline the need in China for policies to stimulate consumer demand and spur exports. Growth in imports for domestic consumption halved to 13.5% in December YoY from November while imports for processing trade – mostly components destined for re-export – grew by 6.2% YoY, down from November’s 11% YoY rate. By contrast, import volumes of resources, including metal ores and oil, held up strongly during December.

  • 10 January 2012

PBoC surveys show exporter sentiment, inflationary pressure continue to weaken

Two sets of survey data released by China's central bank on Thursday show business sentiment among China's entrepreneurs continues to weaken. Of 5,000 companies surveyed by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), 24.8% believe China's economic status to be 'relatively cool' while the percentage of those believing that conditions are still normal slipped to 67.1% from 74.3% in the first quarter. A separate index of company owners' views of economic conditions for the fourth quarter declined 6pp QoQ to 41.7.

  • 22 December 2011

A difficult year set to yield above 8% growth

Betting on above 8% growth in 2012 is a bet on Beijing’s power.

  • 22 December 2011

Financial China - Forecast for 2012

China Confidential details its forecasts for China's financial sector in 2011.

  • 22 December 2011

Kim Jong Il death rattles markets

Markets closed down in Asia in response to the death of the North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and concerns over the transition of power in China's northerly neighbor. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.3%, or 6.61 points, to close at 2,218.24 while the Shenzhen Component Index slid 0.31%, or 27.86 points, to finish at 9,054.08. The dips mirrored similar slides in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), which slid 3.43%, and the Nikkei Stock Average, down 1.26%.

  • 19 December 2011

Select financial charts

A selection of key financial data.

  • 15 December 2011

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