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Capital Intensive

Chinese economy falters as real estate headwinds grow

Headline macro-economic data for August fell sharply, but a closer reading of the numbers suggests that worse may be to come, with the full impact of weak credit growth on the real estate sector yet to be felt. 

15 September 2014

Weak seasonal recovery in Chinese home sales

Although home sales in the 42 cities monitored by China Confidential saw a seasonal uptick in the first week of September, YoY growth remained negative.

11 September 2014

Weakness persists into August

The evidence suggests that much of the weakness seen in July continued throughout August. Though there are some signs of life in the real estate sector, we continue to believe that, without substantial government action, a significant uptick in growth remains unlikely.

11 September 2014

Developer financing risks mount

1H14 financial results for China’s largest developers reveal faster debt accumulation, declining profit margins and rising inventories, suggesting that real estate sector risks are starting to rise.

10 September 2014

Coal consumption and steel production fall sharply in August

Coal consumption at independent power plants and steel output at China’s largest mills fell sharply in the second half of August, suggesting weakness in the industrial sector.

08 September 2014

Further signs of credit easing for home buyers

More Chinese banks are reducing mortgage rates for first-time buyers, but the impact on home sales has, so far, been muted.

02 September 2014

Seasonal recovery in housing market amid signs of credit easing

Home sales rose on a sequential basis and the recent fall in home prices moderated in August. While the improvement appears to be largely seasonal, there are signs that mortgage rates for first-time buyers are being reduced, which could drive a more sustained recovery.

01 September 2014

China’s housing shortage persists

Despite the fall in home sales this year, our analysis suggests that China’s housing market is undersupplied rather than oversupplied.

28 August 2014

Recovery proves short-lived

Sluggish July data and initial indications from our proprietary surveys in August appear to have borne out our prediction that the apparent uptick in Chinese economic growth seen in June would prove short-lived.

28 August 2014

Chinese freight activity remains subdued

Chinese freight activity showed further signs of sequential recovery during the first three weeks of August but remained subdued on an annual basis, according to China Confidential’s latest survey of 200 logistics firms nationwide. The outlook improved significantly, in anticipation of a seasonal surge in activity in September.

20 August 2014

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