Despite the fall in home sales this year, our analysis suggests that China’s housing market is undersupplied rather than oversupplied.

Sluggish July data and initial indications from our proprietary surveys in August appear to have borne out our prediction that the apparent uptick in Chinese economic growth seen in June would prove short-lived.

Closer analysis of the data suggests that the headline uptick in fixed-asset investment growth in June may prove short-lived.

Despite indications of a further strengthening of Chinese economic activity in July, it remains too soon to call a sustainable recovery.

Strengthening credit growth and economic activity in June may appear to suggest that China’s economy has bottomed out, but a closer analysis raises doubts about the sustainability of the recovery.

The recovery in fixed-asset investment growth seen in recent months has been uneven and limited in nature and may not be sustained.

China’s Ministry of Finance has announced that ten provinces and municipalities will be allowed to issue municipal bonds with immediate effect, in line with our predictions. The move underscores the fact that ‘stimulus’ measures implemented by Beijing will likely be within the parameters of reform, with the announced boost to infrastructure investment to be funded through funding reforms, rather than monetary loosening.

Falling property sales have not yet fed through into weaker construction activity, suggesting a gloomy outlook for 2Q14.