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Fixed Asset Investment

Chinese economy falters as real estate headwinds grow

Headline macro-economic data for August fell sharply, but a closer reading of the numbers suggests that worse may be to come, with the full impact of weak credit growth on the real estate sector yet to be felt. 

15 September 2014

China’s housing shortage persists

Despite the fall in home sales this year, our analysis suggests that China’s housing market is undersupplied rather than oversupplied.

28 August 2014

Recovery proves short-lived

Sluggish July data and initial indications from our proprietary surveys in August appear to have borne out our prediction that the apparent uptick in Chinese economic growth seen in June would prove short-lived.

28 August 2014

False dawn for fixed-asset investment?

Closer analysis of the data suggests that the headline uptick in fixed-asset investment growth in June may prove short-lived.

31 July 2014

Tempering the optimism

Despite indications of a further strengthening of Chinese economic activity in July, it remains too soon to call a sustainable recovery.

31 July 2014

A short-term recovery

Strengthening credit growth and economic activity in June may appear to suggest that China’s economy has bottomed out, but a closer analysis raises doubts about the sustainability of the recovery.

16 July 2014

Fixed-asset investment – an uneven recovery

The recovery in fixed-asset investment growth seen in recent months has been uneven and limited in nature and may not be sustained.

03 July 2014

China permits first municipal bonds

China’s Ministry of Finance has announced that ten provinces and municipalities will be allowed to issue municipal bonds with immediate effect, in line with our predictions. The move underscores the fact that ‘stimulus’ measures implemented by Beijing will likely be within the parameters of reform, with the announced boost to infrastructure investment to be funded through funding reforms, rather than monetary loosening.

21 May 2014

Worst yet to come for China’s construction sector

Falling property sales have not yet fed through into weaker construction activity, suggesting a gloomy outlook for 2Q14.

24 April 2014

Jing-Jin-Ji integration to ease capital congestion

Economists and analysts assess a new plan to relocate some administrative and industrial resources into the provinces surrounding Beijing in order to ease chronic pollution, congestion and overcrowding in the capital.

10 April 2014

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