The evidence suggests that much of the weakness seen in July continued throughout August. Though there are some signs of life in the real estate sector, we continue to believe that, without substantial government action, a significant uptick in growth remains unlikely.

China Confidential’s proprietary indicators showed further weak freight activity in August, offsetting signs of improvement across other key areas of the economy. Exports, consumer spending, household income and labour demand growth all strengthened, according to our latest surveys. Real estate developers reported an increase in new home sales volumes for the first time in four months, while prices stabilised after several months of falls.

China Confidential’s proprietary indicators suggested a strengthening of activity in a number of key sectors in July, with a greater proportion of respondents reporting an increase in freight shipments, labour demand rising, consumer spending remaining strong and confidence improving. 

Despite stronger PMI readings and some positive signs in our proprietary macro surveys in June, tight credit and ongoing private sector and real estate weakness continue to mitigate against an economic recovery.

China Confidential’s proprietary indicators suggest a weakening of manufacturing activity in June, with exports also moderating following several months of strong growth. 

Our research in 16 towns nationwide suggests that China’s drive to develop its smaller towns and cities may be more difficult than it foresees.

With little clear evidence of an across-the-board pick-up in economic activity in May, hopes are being pinned on high-profile urbanisation and financial reform efforts. But these represent long-term, structural transformations, not short-term economic fixes.

Continued tight credit conditions are raising risks across key areas of the economy, with local government finances arguably the area of greatest concern.