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Surveys highlight Alibaba’s dominance, but point to risks

Our proprietary survey results underscore Alibaba’s dominance of China’s e-commerce sector, but also point to growing competition and potential risks to its outlook.

19 September 2014

Chinese economy falters as real estate headwinds grow

Headline macro-economic data for August fell sharply, but a closer reading of the numbers suggests that worse may be to come, with the full impact of weak credit growth on the real estate sector yet to be felt. 

15 September 2014

New bank deposit rules could squeeze shadow finance

Chinese banking authorities have issued new rules to curb the artificial inflation of deposits at the end of each month or quarter. The new regulations could significantly reduce banks’ exposure to shadow finance, likely squeezing their finances and lending capacity. However, we are unsure how effectively the new regulations will be enforced.

15 September 2014

Weak seasonal recovery in Chinese home sales

Although home sales in the 42 cities monitored by China Confidential saw a seasonal uptick in the first week of September, YoY growth remained negative.

11 September 2014

Coal consumption and steel production fall sharply in August

Coal consumption at independent power plants and steel output at China’s largest mills fell sharply in the second half of August, suggesting weakness in the industrial sector.

08 September 2014

Further signs of credit easing for home buyers

More Chinese banks are reducing mortgage rates for first-time buyers, but the impact on home sales has, so far, been muted.

02 September 2014

Chinese home sales remain stagnant in August

Home sales data for the first two weeks of August showed no sign of recovery, but, equally, little evidence that the downward trend in home sales is becoming more severe.

19 August 2014

Investment growth weakens in July

Chinese fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth slowed sharply in July, according to data published August 13 by the National Bureau of Statistics. State FAI growth weakened, while the June rebound in private investment growth proved short-lived, in line with our expectations.

13 August 2014

Alibaba and JD.com strengthen grip on e-commerce market

China’s two largest e-commerce companies, Alibaba and JD.com (JD:Nasdaq), continue to cement their leading position in the rapidly consolidating e-commerce market at the expense of mid-sized players, according to our latest consumer survey.

11 August 2014

Lifting of home-purchase restrictions has limited impact

Despite the widespread lifting of home-purchase restrictions, China’s mortgage policy remains restrictive. Without a loosening of policy in this area, we see limited potential for a substantial near-term uptick in home sales.

07 August 2014

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